From: Local GlobalPublishing Subject: C-NEWS: ForeignCorrespondent ON TO THE WINTER PALACE Foreign Correspondent Inside Track On World News By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster Eric Margolis ,,ggddY"""Ybbgg,, ,agd888b,_ "Y8, ___`""Ybga, ,gdP""88888888baa,.""8b "888g, ,dP" ]888888888P' "Y `888Yb, ,dP" ,88888888P" db, "8P""Yb, ,8" ,888888888b, d8888a "8, ,8' d88888888888,88P"' a, `8, ,8' 88888888888888PP" "" `8, d' I88888888888P" `b 8 `8"88P""Y8P' 8 8 Y 8[ _ " 8 8 "Y8d8b "Y a 8 8 `""8d, __ 8 Y, `"8bd888b, ,P `8, ,d8888888baaa ,8' `8, 888888888888' ,8' `8a "8888888888I a8' `Yba `Y8888888P' adP' "Yba `888888P' adY" `"Yba, d8888P" ,adP"' `"Y8baa, ,d888P,ad8P"' ``""YYba8888P""'' ON TO THE WINTER PALACE by Eric Margolis 28 Oct 1996 New York, NY St. Petersburg, November 7, 1917. As night fell, Bolshevik sailors and soldiers were besieging the provisional government of Alexander Kerensky in the former czar's Winter Palace. The Bolsheviks delivered an ultimatum to Kerensky: surrender or die. Kerensky and his minister stood in the palace's great Hall of Mirrors, debating what to do. Suddenly, powerful searchlight beams from `Aurora,' a cruiser moored in the harbor that had been seized by Bolsheviks, , shone through the hall's floor-to-ceiling windows. The message was clear: surrender, or 6-in. shells would quickly follow the beams of light. . Russia's government capitulated. Kerensky went into exile, ending up -of all places - teaching at UCLA. Lenin and his Bolsheviks had seized power. Not, as communist propaganda was later to insist, through a popular uprising, but by a military putsch. Today, Russia is in the most perilous political condition since the Fall of 1917. Government and the economy reel out of control as a deepening power struggle grips `fin du regime' Moscow. The stage is being set for another coup d'etat, or even civil war. President-Czar Boris Yeltsin is gravely ill, barely able to function. His nominal successor, stolid Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, watches as his power ebbs away. Deep in the Kremlin, Chief of Staff Anatoli Chubais runs his own government within the government. The wily Chubais is relentlessly gathering the reins of bureaucratic power. He is now the de facto Regent of All the Russias. Chubais just got his arch rival, Alexander Lebed, fired from the job of national security supremo. Ex-general Lebed, a T- 80 tank in a GUM department store suit, predicts Chubais will engineer Chernomyrdin's ouster `with months. ' Lebed's other arch-enemy, Interior Minister Kulikov, the main architect of the slaughter in Chechnya, claims Lebed tried to mount a military coup using - shades of `Seven Days in May' - a special military unit ostensibly formed to combat crime and subversion. Meanwhile, the still powerful Communist Party, led by Genaddy Zuganov, howls it was defrauded of rightful victory in last summer's elections by a conspiracy to mask Yeltsin's failing health. No more Tovarich Niceguy, say angry Reds: `On to the Winter Palace!' Military putsches are nothing new in Russian history. `Streltsi' - archers of the palace guard - were czarmakers for three centuries until Peter the Great broke their power. Lenin, keenly aware of the threat posed by the army, demanded constant vigilance against `Bonapartism.' Stalin had a more drastic remedy: he had 36,000 senior Red Army officers shot. The army was later to participate in overthrowing Khrushchev, and in the farcical, 1991 coup against Gorbachev. Today, the demoralized, barely paid regular forces, commanded by Defense Minister Igor Rodionov, have shrunken to 1.2 million men. They may mutiny any day. But there are also 22 other official military and para- military groups in Russia, all coup-capable. Gen. Kulikov's Interior Ministry(MVD) has 230,000 troops in 30 divisions, with armor and artillery. The brutal, ambitious Kulikov also commands 8,000 crack OMON commandos - ideal for putsches. Through the presidency, Chubais commands a 50,000-man special Kremlin security force with heavy weapons, 100,000 border guards. and 25,000 mobile security troops. The KGB's internal arm has a sizeable force of troops, including armor. There are a number of top-secret `anti- terrorist' outfits that are also ideal for coups - like the shadowy `Alpha` and `Cascade' groups who briefly surfaced during the anti-Gorbachev coup. And, of course, eight elite `Spetsnaz' commando brigades. In the event of a coup, four regular army units will likely play decisive roles. First, two elite units of the Moscow garrison - the Taman and Kantimir motor rifle divisions. These Kremlin Praetorian Guards could well decide who becomes the next ruler of Russia. Second, the Tula and Ryazan elite paratroop divisions. They can move on 6 hours notice. Former paratroop general Lebed is hated by the corrupt regular military brass, but loved by his former paras. But these divisions are useless unless air force generals agree to fly them to Moscow. Lebed has some strong supporters in the Air Force, the most progressive of the armed services. Unusual movement by these four divisions will be the first sign of a military coup. A chaotic power struggle in Moscow after the demise of Yeltsin, or economic collapse, could also ignite regional warlordism, such as China suffered in the 1920's. Siberian military units are traditionally independent-minded and are now highly restive. Talk of setting up an independent Far East republic is heard. Some military units in Moldova, the Kaliningrad enclave, Sevastapol, and the Caucasus are particularly mutinous. Russians are champion muddlers. They may stumble on downhill for many months or years. Yet one senses a crisis approaching; there is a smell of gunpowder in the Fall air. A clearcut political resolution of the current leadership crisis appears unlikely. Chances another election will be held soon are slim. . Either Lebed, or the communists, would win. Chubais and Chernomyrdin will do everything possible to prevent a new vote. A Lebed- communist alliance - white knight on a red horse - would sweep the polls, or simply seize power, to the joy of many Russians. The failure of the politicians to resolve Russia's titanic problems opens the way for the men with guns. Tough generals transformed and enriched once impovrished South Korea and Chile. Why then not international bag lady, Mother Russia? copyright eric margolis 1996