From: jinks@u.washington.edu (Virginia McMillan)
Subject: Dole by a Whisker
Date: 25 Oct 1996 23:41:30 GMT

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COPYRIGHT 1996 by Conservative Consensus, ISSN 1074-245X.

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SPECIAL ELECTION REPORT

Published 23 October 1996

In 1994, six weeks prior to the general election, Conservative 
Consensus forecast a Republican landslide in both houses of 
Congress.  No major news organization interviewed us before or 
after the election -- despite the fact that our targets were met 
precisely -- down to the number of seats that changed hands.  We 
believe this points to the extent which the major news media in 
the US are involved in manipulating, rather than informing the 
American electorate.

Once again, a significant media effort to manipulate the 
electorate is underway.  The strategy this time is to discourage 
conservatives from bothering to vote, by casting the election as 
already lost.  Our analysis indicates this is the correct strategy 
for them to pursue, but we predict it will fail.

Significant surprises lie ahead during Election Day 1996 for the 
pollsters, candidates, and media pundits.  In the Senate, we 
forecast the loss of one more Democratic seat.  In the House, up 
to 11 Democratic House members will lose their seats, depending on 
the magnitude of the Dole presidential victory.  We also forecast 
the outbreak of a "mini-war" just prior to the election.  With the 
exception of Andrew Jackson, the first Democratic president, no 
president of that party has ever been reelected except when acting 
as commander-in-chief during time of war (WWI and WWII).
....
_________________________

ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY:  The election forecast in this Intelligence 
Briefing expands on the unique technical analysis we used to 
accurately predict the 1994 Republican Congressional landslide.

We provide graphs and analysis of presidential electoral votes 
going back to the time of George Washington, and discuss why 
Clinton is unlikely to win a second term.

We also provide the answers as to why the polling data has been so 
lopsided in favor of Clinton.  Pollsters and the media are in for 
a big surprise.

President Clinton's reelection effort is discussed in view of his 
corruption scandals, Filegate, and press coverage.  Also covered 
are the Congressional races, with updated graphs from our 
successful 1994 forecast.  We also discuss the involvement of 
religion in the 1996 elections.
=========================
SPECIAL ELECTION REPORT:  This special election year Intelligence 
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